Working with Weak Signals (3 Days)
An organisation's capacity for strategic anticipation and response is determined in large part by its ability to identify, analyse and respond to the weak signals of discontinuous change. This course will give you the tools to do just that. We'll demonstrate how to enhance your perception and identify signals in noisy environments. We'll then demonstrate how to amplify and extrapolate these signals and so anticipate their impacts on your organisation or its operating environment. Finally, we'll help you define the actions you should take in anticipation of a signal's evolution or in response to its impacts.
Course Outline
Weak Signal Detection
Course Introduction
- Definitions and key concepts
- A Framework for Weak Signal Intelligence
- The Weak Signals mindset, skillset and toolset
Understanding Perception
- On perception and perceptual awareness
- The factors shaping perception
- Filters, biases and barriers to effective perception
- Managing the impediments to individual / organisational perception and awareness
- Expanding your capacity for signal detection
Project Set Up
- Defining the system and its boundaries
- Defining the centre and the periphery
- Clarifying the known knowns
Signal Detection
- Building your source base
- Signal detection strategies
- Scanning for emerging technologies
- Scanning for non-linear dynamics
- Scanning for novel ideas
- Anticipating systemic shifts
- Signal scanning frameworks
- Signal detection tools
- Signal verification and validation
- Managing the signal to noise ratio
Weak Signal Analysis
Signal Clarification
- Sensemaking via 5W1H
- Understanding signal behaviours
- Detecting and analysing signal patterns
- Signal interpretation
Signal Classification
- Classifying signals
- By domain
- By stage of emergence
- By perceived impact and disruption level
- By actionability
- Working with the REOPS Model
- Mapping and analysing signal clusters
Signal Extrapolation and Analysis
- Signal amplification
- Signal extrapolation
- Impact analysis
- Risk and opportunity analysis
- Contingency planning
Action Planning and Communication
Action Planning
- From early warning to early action
- Effective action planning
- Anticipatory, preparatory and responsive actions
- Action planning frameworks
Communication
- Drafting the signal report
- Communicating your findings
- Managing interest, indifference and dissent
- Enabling organisational responses
- Recalibrating the organisation's signal detection capabilities
Course Details
WHO IS THIS COURSE FOR?
This course intended for anyone working in an analytical role. This includes intelligence analysts, risk analysts, early warning practitioners and strategic analysts and planners. The course would also be of value to those working in change management and for entrepreneurs looking to enhance their ability to anticipate and respond to market shifts.
HOW YOU BENEFIT
On completion of this course you will have the ability to:
- Broaden your perception
- Manage the impediments to signal detection
- Identify and extrapolate the signals you detect
- Anticipate the impacts to your objectives
- Anticipate the attendant risks and opportunities
- Define suitable response plans
- Communicate your judgements to others
WHAT YOU RECEIVE
- A certificate of course completion
- A full set of course slides
- Templates to support the application of the techniques taught
- Six months of post-course support
TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS
Please observe the following technical requirements:
- You will need a Windows or Mac laptop (tablet computers are not recommended)
- Install Google Chrome
- Install Microsoft Office
- Set up a Google account to facilitate the use of online tools
Additional software requirements will be sent prior to the start of the course.
Course Prerequisites
We recommend that participants wishing to take this course first complete our OSINT: Foundations and Strategic Foresight courses.
