Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning (Virtual Course)
This course combines our Strategic Foresight and Scenario Planning programs for the convenience of those who prefer online instruction. You will be introduced to a unique portfolio of tools and frameworks to support predictive reasoning. You will be shown how to scan your operating environment for trends, how to amplify and analyse weak signals, and how to anticipate and capitalise on future challenges and opportunities using a range of scenario planning methodologies. The course will be delivered live over five, 3.5 hour sessions. There will be separate iterations of the course for Asian, European and North American audiences. Please select the start time (SGT, CET or EST) that suits you best.
Course Outline
Horizon Scanning
Introduction to Foresight
- Sensing the future: how and why
- Understanding the dynamic of change
- The many challenges of foresight
Scanning the Horizon
- The role of perspective and perception
- Working with weak signals
- PESTLE and its variants
- The GRNL / GRNO Models
- Identifying macro, meso and micro trends
- Scanning for stakeholder-specific trends
- Building your own scanning frameworks
Trend Analysis
Analysing Trends and their Impacts
- Trend stage analysis
- Temporal impact analysis
- Multi-layered impact analysis
- Identifying n-order effects
- Identifying, anticipating and analysing counter trends
- Monitoring trends online
- Building a foresight toolkit
Generating Scenarios I
Basic Scenario Building Techniques
- What If analysis
- Generating If / Then contingencies
- The Three Futures Model
- Constructing timelines
- Backcasting techniques
- Working with consequence radars
Generating Scenarios II
Advanced Scenario Building Techniques
- Dator’s Scenario archetypes
- The Intuitive Logics methodology
- The Resilient Futures model
Reporting Scenarios
- The elements of effective storytelling
- Structuring your scenario reports
- Alternative scenario communication strategies
From Scenarios to Strategies
Translating Scenarios into Strategies
- From analytic insights to strategic objectives
- Identifying and analysing strategic options
- Identifying strategic opportunities
- Evaluating strategic fit
- Means-End Analysis
- The Plan–Do–Check–Act model
- Resource planning
- Implementing your strategy
Course Details
Who Is This Course For?
This course is intended for experienced analysts, as well as for those working in the domains of horizon scanning, strategic analysis, risk management and crisis management and response.
How You Benefit
On completion of this course you will have the ability to:
- Establish strategic foresight as an institutional / operational capability
- Identify, analyse and monitor weak signals and other change indicators
- Apply a range of foresight techniques to explore risk / crisis scenarios
- Apply a broad range of scenario-based models and frameworks
- Identify, analyse and monitor those trends that are likely to impact your work
- Imagine and explore multiple futures and their consequences
- Define contingency and action plans in preparation for an uncertain future
- Think critically and creatively about future challenges to one’s organisation
What You Receive
- A full set of course slides in PDF
- An index of analytic techniques
- Templates to support the application of the techniques taught
- Six months of post-course support
- A certificate of completion
- One hour of individual consulting if needed
Course Fee
EUR 1,200
Course Prerequisites
We recommend that participants first complete our Intelligence Analysis: Foundations course before undertaking this program. This is to ensure they understand our approach to critical, creative and conceptual reasoning.
Technical Requirements
Please observe the following requirements:
- You will need a Windows or Mac laptop (tablet computers are not recommended)
- Install Microsoft Office
- Install Zoom and Microsoft Teams
- A second monitor is recommended but not essential
Additional software requirements will be sent prior to the start of the course.
