Scenario Planning (3 Days)
Our Scenario Planning course offers a rigorous introduction to one of the more challenging approaches to analytic reasoning. We’ll begin by elaborating on the skill and capabilities needed by organisations and individuals operating in dynamic, unpredictable environments. We'll then walk you through a series of tools to anticipate contingencies, imagine alternative futures and clarify the risks and opportunities you are likely to confront. Finally, we’ll show you how to translate your insights into concrete strategies to help you navigate the future with greater resilience, flexibility and confidence.
Course Outline
Introduction to Scenario Planning
Introduction to Scenario Planning
- Definitions: scenario thinking, building and planning
- A short history of scenario planning
- A typology of scenarios
- A typology of scenario planning tools
- Practical applications
- A mindset for alternative futures
- Common challenges and how to manage them
- Success criteria
Project Scoping
- Defining the scope of your scenario project
- Defining your audience
- Defining your time horizon
- Building the scenario team
Horizon Scanning
- Horizon scanning for scenario planning
- Scanning for trends and events
- Scanning for scenario dynamics
- Scanning for scenario variables
- Recommended scanning frameworks
- Prioritising your results
Basic and Advanced Scenario Planning
Working with Contingencies
- Generating “What If” contingencies
- Via the Futures Cone
- Via the Three Horizons
- Testing your assumptions
- Assessing probabilities
- Anticipating triggers and indicators
- Generating if / then contingency plans
The Three Futures Model
- Working with heuristics
- Defining your baseline
- Defining your “extreme” futures
- Plotting alternative futures
- Identifying and analysing scenario variables
- Establishing scenario plans
Dator’s Four Futures Model
- The Four Futures as macro futures
- Applying Dator’s Model
- Defining a fifth future
- Defining your scenario plans
The Intuitive Logics Method
- Origins
- Identifying critical uncertainties
- Plotting axes of uncertainty
- Defining your four futures
- Benefits and limitations
Alternative Frameworks
- The Resilient Futures model
- Morphological analysis
From Scenarios to Strategies
Defining Your Strategic Objectives
- Appraising your scenarios
- Strategic framing / reframing
- Defining strategic objectives
- Defining strategic conversations
- Building your strategy staircase
Decision Making
- Mapping and prioritising decisions
- Anticipating alternatives
Action Planning
- Planning via the Powers of Ten
- Planning via the String of Pearls Method
Course Details
WHO IS THIS COURSE FOR?
This course is intended for anyone engaged in online research, including intelligence, security and law enforcement personnel, journalists, investigators, cybersecurity practitioners, and business analysts.
HOW YOU BENEFIT
On completion of this course you will have the ability to:
- Clarify the trends and system dynamics shaping your operating environment
- Anticipate contingencies and your response
- Imagine alternative futures using a range of scenario planning frameworks
- Clarify the decisions, strategies and actions
WHAT YOU RECEIVE
- A certificate of course completion
- A full set of course slides
- Templates to support the application of the techniques taught
- Six months of post-course support
TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS
Please observe the following technical requirements:
- You will need a Windows or Mac laptop (tablet computers are not recommended)
- Install Google Chrome
- Install Microsoft Office
- Set up a Google account to facilitate the use of online tools
Additional software requirements will be sent prior to the start of the course.
We recommend that participants first complete our Strategic Foresight course before undertaking this program.
